The Portland Timbers open their third Major League Soccer (MLS) campaign next Sunday in a nationally televised game. The relatively short offseason was a flurry of activity, and once again a few fans and even broadcasters are getting a little carried away with what they think the team will do in 2013.

First, a little history:

The stated goal at the beginning of the team’s 2011 inaugural MLS season was making the playoffs. Winning only two road games all year made that a difficult proposition, but Portland was really good at home, and that kept the team in the hunt until late in the season. The Timbers posted an 11-14-9 (wins-losses-ties) record, which was good for 42 points. They just missed the post season, and fans and the organization were excited about what could happen in 2012. What did in fact happen was a bit shocking to all.

It was playoffs or bust for 2012. The Timbers posted an 8-16-10 record, which was good for only 34 points. The team didn’t win a road game until late October, and they gave away goals as though they were a charity organization. Bust, indeed. The season was an epic failure, resulting in severe repercussions. Many fans were irate — a few by the perception that some players weren’t trying.

By early July, John Spencer was fired as head coach. General manager Gavin Wilkinson took over as interim coach for the remainder of the season while the organization searched for a new head man. He was found in Ohio, coaching the University of Akron men’s team. Caleb Porter had been a hot professional-level coaching prospect for a while. He was hired in late August and joined the team after the college season ended.

Porter and Wilkinson communicated a great deal by phone as the Timbers finished the 2012 campaign. Players were playing for their jobs, and the team was trying out different formations and strategies the last couple months of the season. At the end of the final home game players walked around the field with a sign thanking the fans for their support with the promise that “we will repay you.” Everyone headed into the offseason in October knowing more changes were coming.

So, here we are approaching the end of a five-week training camp with one more exhibition game this weekend. The roster limit is 30 players per team, which goes into effect soon. Twelve players have been jettisoned. About half of them had been starters on the team. Nine new players have been signed and 19 have returned, though two of the latter suffered what are likely to be season-ending knee injuries. Several more players are on trial in camp for a roster spot.

Many of these guys will not be on the roster for the season opener next weekend, but the team has made a remarkable transition thus far in personnel and tactics. Gone are the days when the primary game plan was running the ball up the wings and then sending a wild cross into the opponent’s box, hoping for a goal out of the scrum. The Timbers now play an attacking, possession-oriented game. They work the ball through the middle of the field — probing the defense for weak spots. There are a lot of one-touch passes. It’s exciting to watch.

Of course, that means that some people are going a little crazy with their optimism. One of the team’s broadcasters even said they thought the Timbers would challenge for the third spot in the Western Conference. Really? As one poster wrote on the Stumptown Footy Timbers community:

You haven’t read up on us Portland sports fans. We have one great game, and we’re going to win the league. We have a bad game, trade/cut them all because we’re going to finish dead last! Pretty funny, honestly.

There’s truth in that statement! I’m taking the realistic optimism approach. This team will be fun and exciting to watch. They will score goals, which was a real problem last year. They will win more than one game on the road. They will concede a few goals, at least at the beginning of the year, as the counterattack is something they will be susceptible to with the defensive backline playing high up the field in this system. They have a shot at making the playoffs this year, which means finishing in at least fifth place in the Western Conference.

Having played soccer a bit myself, I can say without reservation that this is very much a team sport that requires everyone being on the same page. It takes time to gel on the field, and the Timbers are basically rebuilding. Half the projected starters weren’t in the Rose City last year. While I think it’s realistic to say they won’t be world-beaters in 2013, for the first time it appears the team has a strong foundation on which to build. This season will be better than 2012, but the real rewards will come later.

That being said, one thing I can predict with great accuracy is that the Timber Joey shake is back at Burgerville this season, and it’s good stuff:

See you at JELD-WEN Field this summer!